So the Conservatives "won" the Canadian election and we'll all get happily on with our lives. A bit of ex post analysis (read ranting) may be warranted.
I am amazed at the degree to which the pundits are saying that the Conservatives won this great victory. It seems to me they increased their seats substantially but I really expected more. The growth in Quebec is very interesting and suggested at first to me that Quebecers thought they could get into government with a vote for the Conservatives. A decrease in Bloc vote would support that hypothesis. On the other hand it looks mostly likely like a federalist leap from Liberals to the Conservatives. I really don't understand why the people of Quebec are so much more offended by the "sponsorship" scandal than others in Canada but it seems they were. The Conservatives fell far short of my expectations and I think they blew the opportunity.
I was surprised that the Liberals didn't do worse. This could have been a masacre of Kim Campbellian proportions but they kept it together despite a definitive schadenfreude in the media. I'm a historic Conservative supporter and really thought they were treated unfairly and held up remarkably well. A large number of other Canadians seemed to think so to. Now they ditch Paul Martin and elect some other wiener and we'll see where it goes.
It will be interesting to see how Stephen Harper does. Can he get rid of the discomfort and distrust Canadians feel about him and his band of rightwing men before Canadians fall in love with Frank McKenna or Michael Ignatieff? Its a race for the hearts of Canadians to see who forms the next majority government.
Its kind of like a mail order bride (work with me on this one) because everyone wants a majority (to get married) but none of the choices seem that great. I was disillusioned with the whole process and voted Green. There seems to be no where for Libertarians to go. Greens had some interesting things to say. My home riding is so overwhelmingly Conservative that this was low risk.
Sorry Jack - can't take you seriously.
It will be an interesting parliament. It will be really interesting to see if we migrate to some sort of proportional representation as the Conservatives and the NDP (and my Greens) seem to advocate. That would make things interesting on an ongoing basis (or perhaps solidfy the two party system??) and be a nightmare for the Bloc. Does that require a consitutional change.
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Oddly enough I tend to support many of the things you say here. I too took to the Greens this year - probably by default at the very last moment, but I take umberance with your comment that there could be risk associated with voting Green.
I assume the risk is that they could actually get elected. May not be such a bad thing. I am sure there are some excellent candidates and it wouldn't hurt for the people to start thinking about the environment again. That was one of my biggest dissapointments in this election - nobody focused on the environmentt beyond some posturing around what Kyoto means.
I concur with your point that this should be a dissapointment for the conservatives. Intersting nobody seems to be able to spin that. Voters can be fickle (passionate?) - particularly in Quebec - so it will be interesting to see. If Harper controls the agenda of the extreme right and chooses more moderate change things could go their way.
The leadership of the Liberals now seems up in the air and the press are running with that - so I think the balance goes to the ruling party.
As for proportional representation I think it can work and it does work. There is nothing wrong with a series of coalitions. I think it brings issues to the forefront and provides some good checks. Will it happen - I can't see it happening as it is not in the interests of the current 'winners'. I don't think it takes a consitutional ammendment, simply agreement in parliment.
I meant the risk was that the liberal could win if I voted green - not that there was risk associated with voting green. I was afraid of the Buzz Hargrove effect.
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